Despite some optimistic remarks following Tuesday’s discussions in Geneva between the United States and Iran, the course appears set… The US plans to strike Iran with the intention of provoking enough internal turmoil and upheaval to force the Shia Muslim clerical rulers to dismantle the Islamic Republic. All military components required for this mission are either already in position or arriving soon. The unpredictable factor remains Donald Trump. He has authorized the Deployment Order, and US bases in the region now host the largest assembly of American combat aircraft since the Iraq invasion in March 2003.
According to a report from the NY Times this evening:
Senior national security officials have told the president that any operation that aims to change the Iranian leadership is not guaranteed to be a success, the officials said. . . . “Diplomacy may give the U.S. more time to get its military ready, but it also gives Iran more time to plan its retaliation,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University. “Ultimately,” he added, “the president has to weigh the cost of attacking Iran. Ironically his approach has made those costs more likely.
It is the responsibility of senior US military and intelligence figures to present Trump with the stark reality — that a US strike on Iran is unlikely to bring about regime change, but will trigger a substantial Iranian response causing heavy US and Israeli casualties and potentially closing off the Strait of Hormuz. This last point represents a threat with significant economic consequences.
Since February 17, 2026, oil futures (especially the widely referenced WTI crude benchmark in the US) have surged notably. Prices climbed from about $62.30 at the close on February 17 to around $65.40 currently, marking a roughly $3.10 increase or nearly 5% within just one to two trading days. Brent crude futures, the global standard, advanced to approximately $70.35–$70.56 by February 18–19, reflecting a similar 4.3% jump on the 18th, and are now hovering near $70.60, up roughly $3.15 or 4.7% overall since February 17.
Another warning sign is emerging… Pizzerias near the Pentagon in Washington, DC, and at CENTCOM headquarters on MacDill Air Force Base are experiencing unusual surges in business. This pattern mirrors those seen right before prior US military interventions in Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq.
Donald Trump is taking a dangerous gamble. The US forces are fully primed and ready… The crucial question is whether Trump will give the command to strike. Should he issue the Execute Order, it could spell the end of his presidency. This isn’t exaggeration… The world’s future is precariously poised.
Original article: ronpaulinstitute.org
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