Trying to figure out what Trump and Netanyahu are going to do vis-a-vis Iran is like trying to read tea leaves in a monster hurricane. Let me start with the facts, i.e., what we know to be true:
- The United States has deployed a vast number of combat aircraft to the area, accompanied by support planes and maintenance crews—an operation on a scale not seen since 2003, before the Iraq invasion.
- Logistical support and air supply routes continue uninterrupted, showing no signs of deceleration.
- Air Force strategists prefer to carry out air missions (a delicate term for initiating conflict) during periods of minimal or no moonlight (though modern avionics have reduced the protective advantage moonless nights once offered). The upcoming phase of no moonlight is in mid-March, suggesting that any planned strike may be delayed until then if planners have their way.
- Today, Oman announced that the US and Russian intermediaries will convene this Friday to resume indirect negotiations, with Oman facilitating as mediator.
- Donald Trump faces intense pressure from both Israel and Christian and Jewish Zionists to launch a military strike immediately, alongside military officials concerned that prolonged deployments will undermine US readiness to conduct a successful campaign against Iran unless action is taken promptly.
- Conversely, Trump is encountering significant resistance from Arab and Muslim regional leaders who urge restraint and favor a diplomatic resolution over military confrontation.
- More than 70% of American voters strongly oppose Trump’s proposed assault on Iran.
- Iran remains open to an agreement ensuring it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and commits to limiting uranium enrichment below levels necessary for bomb material.
- Russia and China have supplied Iran with extraordinary military hardware and intelligence support. Has this influenced the US to slow down and consider a negotiated solution?
Amid circulating social media chatter suggesting Trump might authorize an attack as early as Monday, February 23, questions arise over whether he would proceed so close to his State of the Union address scheduled for the following day.
It is reportedly planned that Trump will meet with a key ally on Monday, who intends to caution the President that engaging in war with Iran could derail his entire policy agenda.
This situation increasingly resembles an intense season of Game of Thrones, minus dragons and nudity. Could Ambassador Mike Huckabee’s provocative remark to Tucker Carlson—that Israel holds divine rights to the territory stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates—have sparked such uproar among Arab and Muslim nations that it forced a postponement of the planned strike?
It seems likely Trump will refrain from ordering an attack until he receives guarantees that it will be swift and successful. A protracted conflict poses significant risks due to fragile supply chains for critical weapons like air defense missiles, compounded by China’s restrictions on crucial minerals such as palladium, essential for producing key armaments like the Tomahawk cruise missile.
So I leave it to you… What do you think is going to happen?
Original article: ronpaulinstitute.org
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