“Whatever happens in Iran, the defeat of the West and its civilisation is inevitable. Trump cannot stop its implosion; he is accelerating it.” The American empire is collapsing like the Soviet Union, says Emmanuel Todd. In 1976, the demographer predicted the fall of the communist superpower based on infant mortality data. Today, he sees demographic statistics as a sign of the decline of the United States. And he warns against a re-armed Germany.
Interview with EMMANUEL TODD, Die Weltwoche, 27 February 2026
The conflict in Ukraine is a critical issue for Germany, the French demographer, historian, and bestselling author told Weltwoche magazine in spring 2023. Soon after, Emmanuel Todd released a book centered on Germany, where the nihilism of Western civilisation features prominently: ‘The Defeat of the West’, published in 2024. Another interview appeared in Weltwoche in spring 2025, where Todd asserted: ‘Russia has won the war’. This position is now echoed by prominent figures like American Colonel Douglas Macgregor.
As a young scholar, Todd gained recognition in 1976 by foreseeing the Soviet Union’s breakdown, basing his forecast on infant mortality rates in the communist state. Later, when he opposed the euro’s introduction at France’s behest during German reunification, his insights were highly sought after in Germany. He attributed a ‘German neurosis’ to the nation’s elite and predicted the single currency would empower Germany’s political dominance in Europe.
His 2002 bestseller Après l’Empire placed him on the international stage. This interview, his third since the Ukraine war began, draws a comparison between America’s decline and the Soviet collapse. He raises a crucial question: what will Germany’s response be once the war ends?
Weltwoche: Mr Todd, as the Ukraine conflict reaches its fifth year, do you think you underestimated anything?
Emmanuel Todd: I always entertain doubts and second thoughts. However, the core prediction was accurate: the West lost this war quite early. Had the US prevailed, Joe Biden would have secured re-election. Donald Trump symbolizes defeat. We must now add that this loss signals the West’s broader decline. This decay of Western civilisation resembles communism’s demise with the Soviet Union. It’s challenging to predict its trajectory clearly. One glaring sign is the collective detachment from reality.
Weltwoche: When did you grasp the war’s scale in Ukraine?
Todd: It became clear when I evaluated the number of engineers in the US versus Russia. America has a population two and a half times larger but produces fewer engineers. John Mearsheimer, whom I respect, argues Ukraine is existential for Russia — undoubtedly true. Yet, unlike Mearsheimer, I believe Ukraine matters even more to the US: defeat there exposes America’s systemic weaknesses. This conflict differs from losing in Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan because Ukraine pits the US against its historic foe since 1945. Losing here would be unthinkable.
Weltwoche: Trump pledged to end it in 24 hours.
Todd: That was sincere on his part. His vulgarity and amorality are shocking to a European bourgeois like me, yet he champions sensible causes. MAGA, or ‘Make America Great Again’, reflects national interests. After a year, Trump admitted that protectionism and tariffs hadn’t revived industry. The country suffers shortages of engineers, technicians, and skilled labor. Illiteracy among 16 to 24-year-olds has risen from 17% to 25% in a decade. America relies heavily on imports and cannot do without them. Shifting industrial production to China was a strategic error for the world’s leading power. Even agriculture faces a trade deficit. Tariffs now threaten the dollar, wielded as a weapon by an empire living off other nations’ labor. The dire state of American society hinders MAGA’s success. Economic and intellectual dynamism are lacking.
Weltwoche: So, Trump is forced to wage wars, against his own wishes?
Todd: That’s his predicament. He’s been pulled into the swirl of US foreign policy over past decades. America aimed to expand and consolidate its empire. Trump didn’t slow this but hastened it. Joe Biden has tried to compensate for imperial decline with the Ukraine war. Trump has expanded conflicts to multiple fronts. He tested his strength against China, only to be humbled by embargoes on rare earths. He threatens Canada and Cuba, covets Greenland, and insults Europeans. Venezuela sees imperial decay through kidnappings and looting. His tariff policies function as blackmail but mostly yield opposite outcomes.
Weltwoche: All this because the US cannot win in Ukraine?
Todd: These moves are distractions. As a result, adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China forge closer ties. Trump didn’t reduce American military involvement but escalated it dramatically. European belligerence toward Russia partly fuels this.
Weltwoche: After talks in Alaska where European leaders were treated like children by Trump, Emmanuel Macron labeled Putin an “ogre” and a “beast to be fed” in a chilling interview.
Todd: Trump exploits this. The Biden administration is behind the Ukraine war, yet Trump portrays himself as a moderate peacemaker. The media paints him as an omnipotent global ruler remaking the world to his will. Meanwhile, America suffers its first major strategic failure against Russia. Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland—these are mere diversions to shift attention from Ukraine. Negotiations also serve to buy time. The ultimate decision lies on the battlefield, and Trump realizes he can’t stop Putin’s triumph. Ukraine faces near-total systemic collapse, tragic though that is for Ukrainians.
Weltwoche: Is Iran another diversion?
Todd: Yes. For me, Israel isn’t an independent player forcing US intervention in the Middle East; it acts as a US satellite, just like Ukraine. Israel follows Trump’s lead. When he demanded a ceasefire in Gaza, it happened immediately. Israel requested permission to end the Twelve-Day War. Netanyahu realized the enemy could launch far more rockets than anticipated.
Weltwoche: You called the Ukraine war the beginning of a third world war.
Todd: It marks the onset of a global war. Russia’s victory is partly thanks to backing from China and India. The BRICS nations side with Russia against the West.
Weltwoche: So, we will witness a world war between the US and Russia with allies Iran, China, and India?
Todd: Russia, China, and Iran are currently defensive. The US is attacking Tehran, but the consequences are uncertain. How the regime, China, and Russia react remains unknown.
Weltwoche: Will they unite against the US in World War III?
Todd: During World War II, the Third Reich attacked everyone. Today, the US initiates attacks. All allies are authoritarian regimes threatened by the faltering American empire.
Weltwoche: What about Europe’s role? You previously said America is, in effect, waging war against Germany.
Todd: We live in what usually belongs to science fiction. Western media has morphed into an empire of lies incapable of truth. Its premise is: Russia threatens Europe. I find that ridiculous. I expect Putin to annex part of Ukraine and end the war thereafter. Conquering Europe is impossible and not Putin’s goal. I analyze American nihilism and moral decline in my book. Now I recognize European nihilism too. Europe is no longer a coalition of equals; it’s dominated by Germany. Olaf Scholz’s measured approach made sense. But Friedrich Merz’s election altered everything. He pushed the US to escalate its war on Russia. The CDU is America’s party, and Merz has stoked German Russophobia. He blends hostility towards Russia with economic crisis caused by war, seeking to fix the crisis by militarizing industry. This is Germany’s new doctrine for Europe. Intelligence agencies warn of a possible Putin attack on Germany.
Weltwoche: Merz aspires for the strongest army in Europe, evoking painful memories, especially in France.
Todd: Believing this rearmament targets only Russia is naive. For Russia, it’s a serious threat; for Americans, a benefit. I attribute this craziness to the EU’s crisis. The EU is stuck and has replaced ideals with a hostile image of Putin. The West isn’t regaining lost unity. Nationalism rises in the US and Europe alike. In Germany, national consciousness is less visible because it dominates Europe. I must return to science fiction: Ukraine war ends, Russia attains its goals. Without a Russian threat, nations return and Germany re-emerges as a confident dominant power boasting Europe’s strongest army. Who will then be endangered?
Weltwoche: Like in WWII: all Europe including Russia, especially France, the traditional enemy?
Todd: For Canada, the US—not Russia—is the threat. For France, it’s Germany. French leaders lack historical insight. Relations between France and Germany improved because France no longer fears Germany.
Weltwoche: France opposed reunification.
Todd: This should concern us. The West’s collapse comes with a return to brutality and hierarchy: submission to the strongest, attacking the weakest. Americans impose this on Europeans, who accepted it by electing Merz. They crave a scapegoat; currently, it’s Putin. Yet Franco-German relations continue to worsen.
Weltwoche: Macron’s offer to share nuclear power with Germany signals submission?
Todd: Merz makes harsh remarks about France. The Ukraine war evolves into a global conflict between former colonies and the West that exploited them. Within a decaying West, old conflicts resurface. No matter what happens in Iran, Western defeat and civilizational collapse are inevitable. Trump cannot stop the implosion; he speeds it up. China and Russia arm the mullahs, and the US realizes one aircraft carrier’s not enough—not even two. Tehran’s regime won’t back down, and Trump won’t abandon an attack, fearing loss of face after pledging support to insurgents.
Weltwoche: He receded on Greenland.
Todd: That was mere theater; he won’t wage war on Denmark. Denmark hosts NSA surveillance over Europe. Greenland is a side stage in the apocalypse.
Weltwoche: You compared this to the Soviet Union’s collapse.
Todd: Back then, no shots were fired; Russians accepted their empire’s end with dignity.
Weltwoche: Ukraine gained independence.
Todd: Russians abandoned communism gracefully. Their empire didn’t rely on exploiting satellites; it tortured itself with Stalinism. Post-collapse years were tough, especially after centuries of totalitarianism. Compared to Russia, the US and Europe are sore losers, particularly the US, which had a historically successful run.
Weltwoche: Do you foresee America playing the Third Reich’s role in WWIII?
Todd: Comparisons to the 1930s are risky; the context differs. Still, there are echoes. Trump’s diplomacy is built on lies. When he speaks of talks, war is sure to follow. This mirrors Hitler’s approach.
Weltwoche: Trump hasn’t started a war yet.
Todd: He lacks power to deploy ground troops; Western societies reject casualties. War is unpopular everywhere, including Russia. Putin cautiously manages human losses without mobilizing total war. Trump won’t send ground troops to Iran either. The conflict is still rhetorical with airstrikes. Iran’s regime weakened by uprisings could spiral into civil war if bombed intensively, causing chaos internally. The Ukraine conflict seems a civil war incited by the US. Regime change in Iran isn’t in America’s interest. Though the mullahs are brutal, mosques lie empty. A nationalist government might oppose the US even more. Like in the 1930s, today’s imagination falls short. The Shoah happened because Auschwitz was unimaginable. Reality exceeds imagination.
Weltwoche: Perhaps science fiction offers insight into today. Politics clings to the past.
Todd: More than history, we should focus on unforeseen possibilities. My main concern is: what’s happening to Germans? Americans want to be Americans; Russians, Russians. The AfD can’t be equated with La France insoumise. It’s frighteningly aggressive. Meanwhile, Germany’s elite accepts war. What if AfD and CDU ally? Will nationalism and militarism merge? Is Germany returning to authoritarianism because it fits its nature? We must ponder this now.
Weltwoche: Any tentative conclusions?
Todd: All my mistaken forecasts concerned Germany; I wrongly assumed Germans could be like French. When Schröder and Chirac protested with Putin against Iraq war, I saw hope for reconciliation and thought Paris and Berlin could share a UN Security Council seat. I envisioned Germany leading a sovereign Europe. I was disappointed. Germany immediately acted alone—from nuclear phase-out to refugee policy. Germany shares responsibility in Maidan, forcing Ukraine to choose Russia or Europe. Even when criticizing Britain harshly in my Ukraine book, I refrained from Germany because I agreed with Olaf Scholz.
Weltwoche: Why can’t Germans become French?
Todd: As a demographer, I studied peasant family structures underpinning political culture. Where brothers shared equal rights, egalitarian ideas could flourish, enabling universal revolutions like France and Russia experienced. Russia adopted communism uniformly. Germany’s revolution failed because brothers lacked equal rights, fostering authoritarian tendencies. Germany accepts inequality among men and nations, unlike Russia or China, making a multipolar world order unimaginable. Why doesn’t France, with its equality tradition, side with Russia? Because it submits to German dominance. Macron’s nuclear sharing weakens sovereignty. For Germany, only hierarchical relations suffice. Germans seek European dominance aligning with their temperament. They are, once again, the strongest.
Weltwoche: Once a Nazi, always a Nazi? You face accusations of systematic hostility towards Germany.
Todd: This isn’t new. My critique isn’t condemnation but observation. I admire and acknowledge German cultural superiority.
Weltwoche: As an anthropologist, do you detect a latent German urge for victory over Russia, a Second World War revenge?
Todd: Not revenge. After war and reunification, Germany rose impressively to challenges—that’s commendable. Of course, Germans know who defeated the Wehrmacht. Russia’s harsh rhetoric suggests denial of their victory. Refusing to accept Russian success is like denying German defeat.
Weltwoche: After reunification, the Soviet collapse was hailed as Western triumph, denying Russia credit for liberating itself from communism, something Germans failed to do under Hitler.
Todd: The 1945 defeat is treated as ancient history, as if it never occurred—much like National Socialism.
Weltwoche: Meanwhile, Nazi past dominates German conscience, and the AfD is combated as if resisting Nazis—domestic heroes against Hitler, European ones against Putin.
Todd: Are Germans so preoccupied with Hitler? If yes, that reveals subconscious stakes I’ve missed, indicating bigger risks. We truly live in science fiction. Elites lack plans or explanations, relying on the EU, which hampers decisions and distorts reality. Germany controls Europe but no one admits it. We have a warped historical understanding shaping the present and blinding us to the future. When lost, one clings to Russophobia.
Weltwoche: Russophobia justified by anti-fascism, with Putin cast as Hitler. There are moves to ban AfD.
Todd: I’m not familiar enough with Germany to opine. I sometimes joke, but it’s grim. I’m uncertain… Maybe Germany is freeing its authoritarian impulse. The AfD is likened to Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen to Meloni and Putin, Meloni to Trump. These comparisons don’t hold. All nations are reverting to nationalism. Germans want to be German again. This trend pervades SPD, CDU, and AfD alike. Differences among post-national ideas blur. In the US, neoconservatives who backed war to spread democracy and the MAGA movement wishing to end it are converging. In Germany, a CDU-AfD alliance is plausible. The return to authoritarian nationalism might present itself as a freedom and democracy struggle.
Weltwoche: How do you view France’s political climate, marked by fights against populists, neo-fascists, and fears of a civil war between ‘anti-fascists’ and ‘fascists’? La France insoumise’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon calls next elections the “final battle.”
Todd: The division paralyzes France. No party advocates abolishing the euro or exiting the EU. Only a radical uprising can end political impotence. We need a movement embracing shared interests beyond post-national ideologies. Sadly, none is visible.
Weltwoche: Who will be the next president?
Todd: I don’t know. I’m no prophet, despite my reputation.
Weltwoche: Osama bin Laden, architect of the Twin Towers attacks, once cited you as a prophet, predicting the American empire’s fall after the Soviet Union’s demise. Who will you vote for?
Todd: I have no idea.
Original article: lafionda.org
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