2025 Ended in Tumultuous Fashion
The previous month was heavily influenced by both domestic and global political turmoil, creating unstable conditions affecting the markets. Let’s examine the main developments shaping this environment. Some are familiar yet contain unexpected elements, while others are less recognized but are poised to gain significant importance over time.
The Political Affordability War
The most significant political debate remains centered on affordability. Democrats argue that rising costs surpass income gains, leaving many Americans struggling to cover essentials such as food, gasoline, and electricity. Additional financial strains come from sharp increases in insurance, healthcare, property taxes, and tuition expenses.
Simply put, many Americans find it impossible to maintain even a modest standard of living, much less pursue the American Dream. Even older Baby Boomers are troubled by their children’s inability to afford homes or vehicles.
Republicans counter by blaming the price surges on Joe Biden’s excessive deficit spending—first in 2021 through his pandemic relief legislation and then in 2022 via the misleadingly named Inflation Reduction Act, which they call the Green New Scam. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden’s watch. Republicans note that gas prices and interest rates have started to fall, which is accurate.
However, the challenge for Republicans is that voters tend to hold the ruling party accountable for economic hardships regardless of actual responsibility. Although price hikes are slowing, they remain increases atop already elevated inflation from 2021-2023. Lower interest rates now reflect recessionary pressures, not stimulus. Meanwhile, unemployment has risen to 4.6% from a recent low of 3.3%.
Democrats currently hold the upper hand in this conversation despite their policies contributing to the situation. Trump is attempting to shift public perception through a series of speeches and rallies but cannot easily override the public’s economic experience. Predicting mid-term outcomes is premature, yet the affordability debate presents a significant obstacle for Republicans.
Geopolitical Tensions
Ironically, even amid economic struggles and rising unemployment, foreign policy has taken center stage in political discussions.
On the international stage, only three nations truly dominate: the U.S., Russia, and China. The rest hold secondary or tertiary influence, making global affairs akin to a three-player poker game.
A well-known poker adage applies: in a three-player game, if you cannot identify the sucker, it’s you. Essentially, two of the players commonly cooperate to defeat the third before turning on each other.
Nixon recognized this in 1971 when he engaged with China, enabling the U.S. and China to counter the Soviet Union. This strategy succeeded—culminating in the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989 and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. Nowadays, China is regarded as the chief adversary, so America’s best course is to align with Russia against China.
Should the U.S. fail to forge this partnership and allow Russia and China to collaborate against it, America becomes the sucker. Recent developments suggest the U.S. has come to this realization. Therefore, the Ukrainian conflict is likely to conclude with a Russian victory, followed by a warming of U.S.-Russia relations. This could create prime investment opportunities in Russia once sanctions are lifted and stability returns.
Meanwhile, Trump is accelerating efforts toward conflict in Venezuela. His War Department has been intercepting drug boats en route from Venezuela to the U.S. Major military assets, including a complete aircraft carrier strike group, have been positioned near Venezuela. Several Venezuelan oil tankers have been seized by the U.S. Coast Guard. On December 16, Trump announced a total embargo on sanctioned oil tankers departing Venezuela.
Removing Maduro. The Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela is now the focus of Donald Trump’s new policy aimed at regime change. Trump has sunk drug boats leaving Venezuela and seized oil tankers carrying Venezuelan oil destined for countries on the U.S. sanctions list. He may soon target domestic drug labs. It remains uncertain whether this attempt will succeed more than past failed efforts directed at Iraq, Iran, and Russia.
Bombing campaigns targeting Venezuelan land sites may be imminent. This is not intended as criticism of Trump since military action is often necessary to safeguard U.S. and allied interests. However, claiming to be a “Peace President”—as Trump does—is more complicated than it sounds. Conflict and peace are intrinsic to human nature, and neither will fully prevail anytime soon.
The Autopen Scandal
This month also brought to light a growing controversy regarding Joe Biden’s use of an autopen to sign essential documents. Since Biden left office in January 2025, insiders have released many accounts of his dementia. These exposés, written by Democrats who previously concealed his cognitive decline, now attempt to reveal what was hidden.
Such memoirs lack credibility. The public was already aware of Biden’s mental deterioration by 2020, so there is no need for books in 2025 to confirm what is common knowledge.
Recall the moment in 2020 when Biden angrily called a supporter at a town hall “a lying dog-faced pony soldier!” Or the occasion he bungled the Declaration of Independence, saying, “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing!” (Notably, the original text does not mention women; Biden was trying to be inclusive but failed.)
If Biden was mentally incompetent, how did he manage the government? He did not—the staff did. They used an autopen to affix Biden’s signature to hundreds of orders, pardons, and other documents. This practice is lawful only if Biden was fully aware and consented to each document, which evidently was not the case. Staff operated unchecked with the autopen, signing documents with minimal oversight.
Trump chose not to challenge these orders individually; instead, he declared that anything signed with Biden’s autopen is invalid. This is a straightforward stance concerning executive orders, which any president can revoke.
The situation is more complex for pardons, as they are a constitutional executive power not subject to legislative review. Yet if Biden was uninformed about the pardons, their autopen-assisted signatures would be illegal and thus invalid. The difficulty lies in proving this for every pardon.
Biden’s aides have invoked the Fifth Amendment, refusing to testify about the autopen’s use. Declaring pardons void is important not merely for Trump’s advantage, but also for pursuing prosecutions of figures like Anthony Fauci, potentially setting the stage for appeals to the Supreme Court. In Washington, it is said that the prosecution is the punishment.
Some go further, questioning the legitimacy of 237 federal judges, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. Were their appointments valid if signed with an autopen? Did Biden comprehend these actions? If not, their authority could be nullified, stripping them of judicial standing.
The implications extend to the rulings made by these judges during their tenure if their appointments were invalid. While such a scenario is unlikely to unfold, it serves as a warning: voters should be cautious about electing elderly candidates with questionable mental fitness in future presidential races.
Lawfare Against Trump – The Results Are In
Recent updates also shed light on the ongoing barrage of lawsuits against Trump since 2016. The Democrats’ relentless legal attacks arose from what I term Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), an affliction that impairs rational consideration of Trump’s policies. This was less about disagreement and more about blind hostility.
Fearful of a Trump presidency—especially a second term—the Democrats resorted to every tactic to undermine him, including two impeachments based on flimsy charges and a banking fraud lawsuit accusing Trump of inflating Mar-a-Lago’s value, despite it being worth much more. That lawsuit ended with a $500 million-plus judgment against Trump.
There was also a Manhattan criminal case grounded on a legally dubious theory. Trump’s notation of “legal fees” on a lawyer’s check inexplicably led to 34 felony convictions and a potential 136-year prison sentence. The Biden-controlled Justice Department prosecuted Trump over the January 6, 2021 “insurrection,” which was in fact orchestrated internally by Nancy Pelosi and the Biden FBI.
Additionally, Trump faced an $85 million defamation verdict related to an alleged sexual assault involving a woman known for her sexual proclivities and a cat named Vagina. No witnesses supported the claim, and the New York legislature passed special legislation to allow the suit despite statute of limitations expiration. Trump also survived two assassination attempts, including a shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania.
What is less widely known is that these cases have been overturned or reversed one by one. The defamation and felony cases are under appeal. The Mar-a-Lago valuation judgment was significantly reduced, also pending appeal. The January 6 prosecutions were dismissed, and the prosecutor Jack Smith may face criminal charges himself for mishandling evidence. Both impeachments failed to secure Senate convictions.
In a recent development favorable to Trump, a Georgia state RICO case accusing him and 19 others of election interference was dismissed after revelations that the prosecuting DA Fani Willis had an affair with the lead prosecutor and misused public funds for vacations. Georgia removed Willis from the case and ultimately ended the prosecution.
The judge’s opinion includes several exonerating points supporting Trump’s claim that the case was baseless. Summing up, the judge stated, “it is not illegal to question or challenge election results.” Gradually, the rule of law is reasserting itself, and the TDS-afflicted Democrats are being reined in.
The Litigation Never Stops
Credit is due to Trump for his efforts to dismantle the Deep State and “drain the swamp.” This vast entrenched bureaucracy requires time to identify and remove progressive operatives, as well as to repeal burdensome regulations imposed during the Biden and Obama years. Nevertheless, Trump has achieved considerable progress within just ten months.
A recent example is Trump’s repeal of Biden’s fuel economy standards for cars and trucks. This move is unrelated to pollution concerns, which were largely addressed decades ago by removing lead from gasoline and enacting environmental protections.
Everyone desires clean air and water, achieved thanks to legislation dating back to the Nixon era, who signed the Environmental Protection Act and established the EPA. However, Biden’s fuel economy rules aimed to phase out internal combustion engines and replace nearly all vehicles with electric ones (EVs).
EVs, essentially upgraded golf carts, are impractical for powering a large, advanced economy, especially given the scarcity of charging infrastructure. Biden’s plan would have favored elites owning EVs or private jets, while the general populace would have been forced to walk or bike.
Trump has ended that approach. Today, development can resume on efficient, clean vehicles powered by gasoline, diesel, or sometimes natural gas. Step by step, he is dismantling the Biden administration’s misguided regulations.
Yet the opposition remains relentless. Far-left neo-Marxist NGOs have filed over 200 lawsuits in federal courts attempting to block nearly every Trump initiative. Issues targeted include immigration, vaccines, tariffs, the Green New Scam, and drug boat interceptions. These plaintiffs often seek sympathetic venues in states like Rhode Island or California, where radical judges are more common.
Instead of strictly applying the law, these judges frequently stretch interpretations or invent rulings to deliver left-wing outcomes. This often results in illegal nationwide injunctions, forming part of a broad judicial assault on the executive branch aimed at undermining Trump.
Trump’s Court Victories Pile Up
That’s the downside. The upside is that many district court decisions unfavorable to Trump are being appealed to circuit courts and, in some cases, the Supreme Court. His success rate is about 10% at district courts, but rises near 50% at the circuit level and approaches 90% at the Supreme Court.
If progressives keep losing major cases before the Supreme Court, why persist? Why not allow the Deep State free rein instead of granting Trump landmark legal victories that could influence constitutional law for generations?
Two reasons: first, delay itself serves as a kind of win for the left by bogging down the White House in constant litigation. Second, and more worryingly, the left intends to disregard the Supreme Court rulings, relying instead on rogue district court judges to secure their aims through ever more tortured legal interpretations. Remedies like impeaching judges or dissolving courts exist but Congress has yet to act on these.
Meanwhile, Trump’s victories continue accumulating. A recent case argued before the Supreme Court, expected to be resolved next June, concerns whether the president can remove heads and members of hundreds of so-called independent agencies and commissions established by Congress to perform executive functions. The court is likely to rule that these removals are lawful, as separation of powers would allow the president to dismiss such officials at any time for any reason.
This ruling could deal a significant blow to the Deep State. If it goes Trump’s way, it will likely reduce burdensome regulations and foster a more productive environment for capital and stock market growth.
A Mid-Term Election Preview
Another key theme this month involves fractures within MAGA. Numerous conservatives are resigning from Congress, placing more seats at risk. The Republican-dominated Indiana legislature rejected Trump’s redistricting plan, costing Republicans two potential seats. Marjorie Taylor Greene, an early MAGA figure, is being marginalized. Trump threatens to primary Republicans who reject his positions, creating internal turmoil.
It’s too early to predict mid-term outcomes; clearer insights will emerge this summer. However, the possibility of Republicans losing the House is a tangible concern, with substantial supporting evidence. Republican anxiety is growing.
The consequences of Democratic House control for markets are significant. To summarize:
1. Democrats will rapidly pursue impeachment efforts against Trump (once more) and potentially Pete Hegseth (for war crimes), Kristi Noem (immigration policies), and others, bogging down the House and unsettling markets.
2. With committee control, Democrats will hold endless hearings, fueling fabricated scandals—including reviving Russia-related allegations.
3. While unable to reverse Trump’s current achievements due to Republican Senate control, Democrats will stall further progress on tax cuts and deregulation, harming market sentiment.
4. The Green New Scam will be resurrected.
Last month was a mixed picture: Trump earned vital legal wins even as lawsuits persisted. Republicans advanced in redistricting battles but fell behind in the affordability debate. On top of this is the looming threat of conflict in Venezuela amid ongoing crises in Gaza and Ukraine.
We expect the coming month to remain as turbulent as the one just passed.
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