Israel’s objectives are unmistakable: this segment of the Gulf of Aden represents the gateway to the Red Sea and consequently to the Suez Canal.
Dangerous geographies
Back in 1944, amidst global conflicts in Europe and Asia and four years prior to Israel’s establishment, representatives claiming to advocate for Jewish war refugees approached Ethiopia’s government. They requested asylum specifically in the eastern province of Harrar and the western regions of British-administered Somalia.
This confidential request, which was also shared with the US State Department, proposed that the area be set aside exclusively for European Jewish immigrants and governed autonomously by the refugees themselves.
Although Emperor Haile Selassie expressed deep personal empathy toward the suffering of European Jews, he declined the proposal. He stated that Ethiopia’s “sincere desire” to “help the victims of aggression is in no way consistent with the request that the nation itself reserve an entire province for any group of refugees.”
The territories commonly referred to as Somaliland (mainly under Isaaq clan control within the former British Somalia), eastern Sudan—particularly Darfur and Kordofan managed by the RSF’s “Peace and Unity” administration—and southern Yemen, where the STC holds sway with al-Hirak as its principal but not sole faction, all trace back to historical secessionist movements. These include the 1994 separatist push and, prior to that, the clan alliances merged into the Yemeni Socialist Party of the RPDY. These three partially recognized entities are the focus of Israeli-Emirati collaboration that seeks to elevate them into fully sovereign states, independent from Mogadishu, Khartoum, and Sana’a.
As observed by Africa specialist Filippo Bovo, despite lacking formal international recognition, these separatist regions have effectively existed for some time. Still, this historical reality shouldn’t serve as grounds for legitimizing their authority or endorsing the civil conflicts that underpin them. The Isaaq’s drive for independence stems from the marginalization and outright “capture” of rival clans within a state treated as a private domain. The RSF under Hemedti aims to establish a state in eastern Sudan marked by severe ethnic cleansing campaigns against non-Arab or non-Arabic-speaking communities, reflecting the Janjaweed militia’s brutal legacy. Likewise, the resurgence of an independent South Yemen reflects a fragile state structure marked by continuous violent clan rivalries, previously masked by supposed socialism and power struggles driven by bloodshed.
In all three instances, Israel and the United Arab Emirates exploit these distinct historical identities to weaken state unification, deploying local proxies and allies to this end. Their network includes nations like Ethiopia, Kenya, Chad, Libya, Rwanda, and Uganda, alongside various non-state actors such as al-Shabaab, IS-Somalia, STC, RSF, M23, JNIM, ISWAP, plus numerous cooperating clan and tribal groups. This region spans from the Arabian Peninsula to the Horn of Africa, incorporating the Nile Valley, the Great Lakes, and extending from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
The overarching objective is to secure vital strategic corridors essential for commerce while sustaining lucrative neocolonial resource extraction—from gold to critical minerals—and restraining regional powers viewed as rivals, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Eritrea. Using a vehicle analogy, this destabilization campaign across Africa and the Middle East, after a rocky start in Somaliland, now appears to function “on three cylinders” in southern Yemen. It would be wiser to pause for repairs rather than continue a risky journey.
To avoid a direct confrontation with Saudi Arabia—which conditions releasing hundreds of billions in US investments on Washington ending Emirati backing for RSF, STC, and Somaliland—the United States has informed Israel, the Emirates, and Ethiopia that it will not recognize Somaliland’s declaration of independence. This decision dealt a significant blow to Addis Ababa, which had been seeking to revive its agreements with the Isaaqs per the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (which included recognition of Somaliland in exchange for Ethiopian port and naval access facilitated by Abu Dhabi). Simultaneously, tensions escalate as Washington and the Ethiopian government clash over Ethiopian support for the RSF in Sudan (in coordination with the Emirates) and the pressure exerted on Eritrea concerning Assab’s port facilities.
Riyadh later intercepted a weapons shipment destined for the STC originating in the Emirates at Mukalla port in southern Yemen. The growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates is becoming increasingly pronounced, evidenced by this act: the shipment, sent from the Emirates to an Abu Dhabi ally but Riyadh adversary, landed in a port where the Emirates maintain presence, control, and investments. The message was also aimed at Israel, whose operations in the same zone remain more covert. Following this, Saudi Arabia issued a stark ultimatum demanding that Emirati forces withdraw from southern Yemen and cease their support for the STC.
In response, the STC declared it would sever ties with Abu Dhabi, ordered the immediate withdrawal of Emirati troops within 24 hours, and implemented a 72-hour border blockade on territories under its control, except for routes approved by Riyadh. Consequently, the Israeli-Emirati plan appears increasingly stalled and sputters along “on three cylinders.” The escalating discord between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, now openly willing to confront each other, inevitably drags in other regional powers—some previously silent—and is likely to trigger renewed conflicts across a vast area spanning the Great Lakes, Nile Valley, Horn of Africa, and Arabian Peninsula. Hence, Somalia-Somaliland, Yemen, and Sudan stand as the initial but certainly not sole focal points requiring heightened scrutiny.
In 1943, Hermann Fuernberg, activist and leader of the Jewish Aid Committee, outlined the proposal in a pamphlet and explained why the Harrar region was ideal:
“This territory is large enough… [and] inhabited by a small agricultural population, which should not create great difficulties. However, it will be necessary to remember the lessons learned from the Palestinian experience, namely to prevent the territory from being invaded by people from other parts of Ethiopia and to keep foreign agitators away.” From this, everything becomes clear.
Never ever
The international response has been swift and forceful.
China’s Foreign Ministry condemned Israel’s recognition of the separatist Republic of Somaliland after Taiwan became the first government to back Tel Aviv’s move. Beijing opposed Israel’s acknowledgment of Somaliland as a “sovereign and independent state” and the establishment of diplomatic relations, according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian. He emphasized, “No country should encourage or support separatist movements within other states to pursue selfish interests,” urging Somalia to halt “separatist activities and collusion with external forces.” China expressed firm support for Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, opposing any initiatives threatening these principles.
Similarly, Iran and other Islamic nations—including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Djibouti, Iraq, Jordan, and Pakistan—publicly rejected and denounced Netanyahu’s decision. In a Fox News interview, Netanyahu spoke of stabilizing “democratic Islamic states” modeled on the Syrian example, that is, placing terrorists in puppet leadership positions to maintain control over large swaths of territory.
Within Somalia, thousands marched in cities like Mogadishu, Baaydhabo, Hobyo, and Guriceel to protest Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, condemning it as illegal under international law and a threat to regional security. Demonstrators carried Somali and Palestinian flags, alongside placards criticizing the move.
Somalia’s National Consultative Council—including President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, and various federal and regional leaders—condemned the recognition as an “illegal act” jeopardizing peace and stability across the region “from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.” Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, head of Yemen’s Ansarullah resistance, also denounced the decision, stating any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be seen as a direct military threat.
The African Union reaffirmed its backing for Somalia’s territorial integrity, rejecting any recognition of Somaliland, while the Arab League called Israel’s move a blatant breach of international law.
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) expressed strong opposition, warning that the decision sets a highly dangerous precedent.
Likewise, the European Union restated its commitment to Somalia’s internationally recognized borders. During the UN Security Council meeting on Monday, all members except the United States criticized Israel’s action, cautioning that it might further destabilize Somalia and its neighbors. Though Washington declined to formally condemn Israel’s recognition of the separatist region, it reaffirmed that its official stance on Somaliland remains unchanged.
Somalia’s UN ambassador, Abu Bakr Dahir Osman, accused Israel of intentionally spurring the country’s fragmentation and voiced concern that the move could trigger forced transfers of Palestinians into northwestern Somalia. “This disregard for law and morality must be stopped,” he asserted.
Israel’s aim remains unmistakable: control over this strategic area of the Gulf of Aden is crucial as it serves as the gateway to the Red Sea and thereafter the Suez Canal. This route is vital for the commercial interests of Israel, Europe, and the United States. It facilitates the movement of military equipment, crude oil, and numerous service sector goods. Israel has invested in the IMEC corridor, ensuring connectivity from Suez to Haifa, making full dominance of Red Sea traffic indispensable. However, Israel also recognizes that the Houthis and thus the entire Axis of Resistance hold strategic sway over this maritime passage, effectively blocking the Zionist entity’s ambitions.
About the Author
