The real problem for Trump is both his and his team’s ignorance and misunderstanding of Iran.
Can anyone truly make sense of Trump’s erratic, irrational, and absurd remarks on Iran? This is the same president who shredded the JCPOA agreement back in 2018—a pact designed to restrict Iran’s uranium enrichment to roughly 4%, a limit Tehran has since surpassed to reach 60%. Under his watch, Tehran has gained control over the Straits of Hormuz, while Gulf Cooperation Council nations pull away from the U.S. and its unrealistic regional ambitions. Trump appears so unclear about his objectives with Iran that he seems unaware of how rapidly he contradicts himself, tweeting conflicting statements mere minutes apart. At its core, his behavior resembles a confused creature chasing its own tail.
One tweet demanded, “Open the Strait of Hormuz until 8 p.m. or I will destroy your civilization,” which Iran promptly rejected. Trump’s subsequent response was a confusing spectacle: “I am starting an indefinite ceasefire. Whatever the U.S. says will happen,” he declared, implying he might not be directing these decisions or negotiations at all. Israel’s role in this drama is far more significant than most Americans realize, with Netanyahu deploying every ounce of influence and resources to sabotage any possible agreement. The Iranians had consistently prioritized ending hostilities and opening the straits over the nuclear question, which infuriated Trump. However, it seems a deal was reached to debate nuclear issues during an initial 60-day ceasefire—giving Trump hopeful ground to claim some kind of victory. This, in turn, frustrates Netanyahu, who risks his political career if peace is forged alongside nuclear guarantees.
Subtle messaging plays a vital part here. Recently, Trump told reporters at the White House that he “didn’t care about the midterms” and wasn’t in a rush—statements that are clearly disingenuous, considering his desperation to secure a deal. That message was clearly directed not at Iran but at Netanyahu and his influential Jewish lobby. Trump may indeed dismiss the damage to Republicans in November’s elections, possibly even preparing himself for impeachment proceedings.
Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon and threats to obliterate southern Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, send another message. This strategy enables Israel to demonstrate to the U.S. that it can act militarily independent of American government preferences, pursuing its own vision of expanding ‘Greater Israel.’ Since the 1970s, Israel’s elite have dreamed of fully controlling Lebanon and turning it into a Judeo-Christian satellite state. During the 1982 invasion targeting PLO forces, Israel installed a puppet Christian president—soon assassinated by Assad—and carried out the horrific Sabra and Shatila massacres, murdering countless Palestinians and innocent Lebanese. These atrocities remain a stain on Israel, exposing a brutal and twisted mindset behind the violence.
Is Netanyahu aiming to seize Lebanon entirely?
Recently, Israeli forces captured the strategic Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon—a move Netanyahu hailed as a “decisive shift” in their campaign against Hezbollah. Ground troops have pushed beyond the Litani River, sparking fears among Lebanese that they are pawns in a geopolitical struggle designed to compensate Israel for U.S. failures to oust Iran’s regime. This is not as far-fetched as it sounds. Lebanese Sunnis would likely avoid fighting the IDF, while Christians might support Israeli control if it meant Hezbollah’s destruction and their own restoration to power. The Druze community, historically pragmatic, may also lean toward Israel, similar to their past behavior in Israel and Syria when it suited them. What exactly Netanyahu and Lebanon’s leaders are discussing remains unknown.
Ultimately, Trump’s major issue lies in his and his team’s profound ignorance and misreading of Iran. The ill-conceived idea floated by Witkoff and Kushner about sweetening a real estate project offer was a glaring failure from the start, given the Shia beliefs in Iran and their rejection of the glitzy Dubai skyline—a notion almost sacrilegious to their values and way of life. Simply put, it was a foolish misstep.
This real estate proposal reveals just how disoriented Trump is and how badly out of his depth he is in these talks. Reports from defense experts in Washington now suggest the U.S. might launch a prolonged conflict lasting over two years—roughly the duration of Trump’s remaining term. But this prospect raises questions, as the U.S. reportedly needs three years to replenish military supplies depleted on February 28th. The Iranians are bewildered by representatives from three different countries pressuring them to sign a deal, but such an agreement won’t materialize until they witness the blockade’s removal and see a reasonable $12 billion deposited into their accounts (out of the $100 billion the U.S. currently holds). Trump fails to grasp Iran’s perspective and, more critically, lacks credibility as a negotiator. At this point, only tangible actions count. Will he prove to be a man of action?
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