The Blue-Collar Path

Many recent college graduates are entering a tough reality upon finishing school.

The employment landscape is grim.

Data from the New York Fed reveals that 42% of recent graduates are working in positions that don’t require a degree.

Within major tech firms, newcomers fresh out of college now make up only 7% of hires, a decline of more than 50% since 2019.

Across the nation, companies are reducing entry-level white-collar hiring. According to recruiting agency Cadient, postings for beginner roles have dropped 73% since 2022 (the same year ChatGPT was released – coincidence?).

With fewer opportunities at the entry-level, how are young graduates supposed to gain the experience needed for advanced roles?

The environment is harsh. And this comes at a time when stock markets are at their peak! Imagine the fallout if a crash and recession occur.

The foundational tier of white-collar careers is already crumbling, and things are likely to become even more difficult.

Blame AI, Immigration, and Outsourcing

Cutting-edge AI technologies are a major driver of this transformation. Tasks that were once performed by fresh hires and interns are increasingly assigned to ChatGPT, DeepSeek, and Claude.

As AI systems grow more capable of handling complex responsibilities, this concerning trend is bound to quicken.

Adding to this is a large influx of immigrant workers on visas such as H-1B, who occupy a growing share of office-based jobs. These workers often accept lower wages and extended hours (I don’t really blame them. The blame lies with our politicians for letting it happen).

The claim that America must bring in tech talent from developing countries is so absurd it’s hard to believe anyone says it seriously. Yet, politicians from both parties regularly promote this idea.

Tech giants and AI companies are the worst offenders in preferring foreign workers over Americans. OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, was recently fined $3.2 million for discriminating against U.S. workers in favor of foreign hires. U.S. law mandates that companies seek green cards only when no qualified American is available. However, OpenAI reportedly prioritized filling certain roles with cheaper foreign labor instead of attempting to employ Americans. Such practices are widespread in the tech sector.

Job postings are sometimes concealed, so no applicants come forward. Then companies claim, “gosh nobody applied for this job we hid, so we have to hire a H-1B…”

The $3.2 million penalty is a start, but meaningful change requires much heftier fines. For major tech firms, $3.2 million amounts to pocket change. Boycotts could also emerge as an effective response in the future.

Additionally, traditional outsourcing remains a problem, where domestic teams are replaced with operations overseas, often in India. Several friends of mine have lost jobs due to outsourcing in recent years.

Put together, these factors create a challenging landscape for white-collar workers, particularly those just starting out.

The Blue-Collar Option

For many years, it seemed the only reliable path to success was earning a college degree and landing a comfortable office job. While this was never entirely true, that belief was common during my childhood.

Today, with AI advancements, high immigration levels, and outsourcing, this notion is falling apart.

Thankfully, there is an alternative route for young people to pursue: the trades. This path is set to gain popularity in the years ahead.

My 17-year-old son is a prime example. He recently began work as an electrical apprentice and already earns $24 per hour. Not bad at all.

During his senior year in high school, he’ll continue learning the trade while earning wages, thanks to an apprenticeship program managed by the Independent Electrical Contractors (IEC). He will graduate with his classmates and even earn college credits should he decide to pursue higher education later.

IEC connected him with a local electrical firm that hired him. The company covers his classes, provides a full tool set, and delivers hands-on training. A solid arrangement.

By age 21, he is expected to earn $65,000 or more as a licensed journeyman electrician. He should also be able to save over $100,000 while living at home.

Apprenticeship programs like this one exist nationwide, although many remain unaware of their availability. For centuries, apprenticeships were the norm before formal degrees; they will be standard again.

Blue-collar professions offer clear benefits: no college debt, protection from AI-related job losses, and strong demand.

There are, of course, downsides. The work is physically demanding. But if I were his age, I would make the same choice. I am extremely proud of the route he has taken.

Of course, some fields still require a university degree—engineering, architecture, medicine, computer science, math, and similar areas. But AI is already disrupting many of these professions, with bigger changes looming.

Let’s be honest. The worth of most college degrees is dropping quickly, especially in the liberal arts. This trend is rapidly gaining momentum.

In contrast, blue-collar wages will hold up much better than many “knowledge work” roles in the coming decades, thanks in large part to AI, immigration, and outsourcing dynamics.

Nonetheless, many young people still believe that college is essential for a good living. This is no longer true—and it won’t be in the future.

More young adults should explore careers in skilled trades. Plumbers, electricians, welders, and others in these professions earn decent incomes and enjoy greater job security compared to many office jobs.

In a world marked by immigration pressures, AI challenges, and outsourcing, skilled blue-collar work offers a promising outlook.

If there are young individuals in your life struggling to find their way, encourage them to consider the trades. I am confident it presents the best option for many young people (and adults) today.