From Empty Stockpiles to Explosive Profits

A continuing discussion around the conflict with Iran revolves around the quantity of weapons the United States has deployed, whether in striking Iran or defending U.S. installations from Iranian retaliation.

The inquiry into how many weapons have been expended naturally leads to questions about what remains in U.S. military reserves. Should these supplies be scarce, it raises serious concerns about America’s capability to sustain the conflict in Iran and handle conflicts in other volatile regions.

President Trump asserts that the U.S. possesses a sufficient arsenal to prolong the conflict and confront emerging threats. However, this assertion is questionable. Reality shows that some stockpiles are nearly exhausted, while others linger at dangerously low levels.

Obtaining precise data is challenging, yet we have secured relatively reliable figures from Pentagon sources and manufacturers involved in weapons production.

Below is an overview of critical weapons systems currently in limited supply, detailing quantities requested for replenishment, expected deliveries, annual production limits, and estimated timelines for restoring inventories to their prewar strength:

Tomahawk Cruise Missiles: More than 1,000 missiles have been launched against Iran so far. The Pentagon’s fiscal year 2027 request stands at 785 missiles. Deliveries expected in fiscal year 2026 total 207. Annual manufacturing capacity ranges from 600 to 1,000 missiles, though the lower figure is more plausible. Restoring inventories to pre-war levels likely won’t occur until late 2030 or early 2031.

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Missiles (THAAD): Roughly 290 missiles have been fired in Iran to date. The Pentagon seeks 857 missiles for fiscal year 2027. Deliveries forecasted for fiscal year 2026 number 92. Annual production capacity falls between 96 and 400, with the lower estimate more realistic. Stockpiles are not expected to recover to prewar levels until late 2029.

Patriot Interceptor Air Defense Missiles: About 1,430 missiles have been expended in the conflict with Iran so far. The Pentagon’s request for fiscal year 2027 is 3,203 missiles. Anticipated deliveries for fiscal year 2026 are 172. Annual output is approximately 2,000 missiles. Inventory replenishment to prewar status is expected by mid-2029.

RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 (SM-3): Designed to neutralize ballistic missiles in space, about 250 SM-3 missiles have been used against Iran. The Pentagon requests 214 missiles for fiscal year 2027. Deliveries projected in 2026 are 52. Production capacity ranges from 156 to 250, with the lower figure being more reasonable. Prewar stock levels likely won’t be restored until early 2029.

RIM-174 Standard Missile 6 (SM-6): Intended to destroy incoming aircraft and missiles as well as strike ships—approximately 370 have been used in Iran. The Pentagon’s request for 2027 is 540 missiles, with 125 deliveries expected in 2026. Production capacity is roughly 240 to 500 missiles per year, with the lower estimate more credible. Inventories should return to prewar levels by late 2028 or early 2029.

AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM): A cruise missile launched from safe distances by U.S. Air Force platforms—around 1,100 were used in Iran. The Pentagon requested 821 for 2027, with 484 scheduled for delivery in 2026. Production capability is about 860 missiles annually. Inventory recovery to prewar benchmarks is expected by mid-2027.

Precision Strike Missile (PrSM): A novel surface-to-surface missile—about 70 have been deployed in Iran. Pentagon requests for fiscal year 2027 reach 1,134 missiles. Deliveries anticipated in 2026 are 70. Annual production runs near 680 missiles. Restoring inventories to prior levels is predicted for late 2026.

This overview concentrates on the principal weapons systems employed by the U.S. in Iran, such as cruise missiles, interceptors, and offensive missiles.

It excludes additional, though equally vital, data like the worldwide shortages of 155mm artillery shells, which, while not deployed in Iran, are critical on the front lines in Ukraine.

The Pentagon’s Math Doesn’t Add Up

Several important observations emerge from these numbers.

Foremost is the vast disparity between the Pentagon’s 2027 missile requests versus projected 2026 deliveries. For example, the Patriot missile request for 2027 is nearly twenty times the anticipated 2026 supply. THAAD missile requests for 2027 exceed nine times expected deliveries this year. Similarly, PrSM missile requests are more than 16 times the anticipated output. Comparable ratios hold for other weapon systems.

This disproportion raises serious skepticism regarding the industry’s ability to fulfill Pentagon demands. Although production is growing, these systems are highly complex, involving delicate electronics, guidance mechanisms, radar seekers, and other intricate components essential for their performance.

Increasing manufacturing output is nowhere near as straightforward as boosting production on a factory line for vehicles. Much of the process requires specialized craftsmanship.

Additionally, there is a significant imbalance between requested weapon quantities and actual production capacity. Requests for Patriot missiles are at 160% of estimated capacity, whereas THAAD requests nearly reach 900% of current capacity if the lower production estimate is applied.

This discrepancy clarifies why restoring stockpiles to targeted levels will not occur before 2029 or beyond. Importantly, these projections don’t account for potential escalations in Iran or new military engagements elsewhere.

The U.S. faces a precarious position with depleted critical weapons inventories. Despite bold statements from the White House, the underlying reality remains unchanged.

Ukraine’s Bill Comes Due

A major failure lies in the fact that U.S. arsenals would not be as drained if not for the substantial commitment of weapons to Ukraine.

From the outset of that conflict in 2022, we forecasted a Russian win and identified Ukraine as a corrupt nation grappling with a significant neo-Nazi issue. These early assessments align with current developments as Russia intensifies its push in eastern Ukraine and along the Black Sea.

The Patriot missiles and other systems transferred to Ukraine have further strained America’s inventory and production limits. While not all these weapons originated from existing U.S. stockpiles, the Ukraine factor is not the sole reason behind the low inventory levels now faced amidst the Iran conflict.

Nonetheless, the dilemma of allocating limited weapons supplies across multiple conflict zones was foreseeable by Washington.

The White House has activated the Defense Production Act to ease legal, logistical, and supply challenges hindering increased weapons manufacturing. Still, the critical condition we face stems from Obama and Biden’s twelve years of policies that diminished America’s military readiness.

During Trump’s first term, efforts to rectify the situation were hampered by the Russiagate Hoax and two Democrat-led impeachments. Progress is only now beginning to manifest in Trump’s second term.

Eight Defense Giants, One Massive Rebuild

The U.S. defense industry’s largest players, collectively known as the Big Eight, include Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon), General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, L3Harris, HII (formerly Huntington Ingalls Industries), and Leidos.

Lockheed Martin leads as prime contractor for THAAD, JASSM, and the PrSM. RTX oversees the Tomahawk cruise missile, the Patriot system, SM-3, and SM-6 projects. HII specializes in constructing nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines.

Northrop Grumman produces the B-2 stealth bomber and is a key partner on the F-35 fighter jet. L3Harris provides advanced telecommunications, electronic warfare, night vision technology, and rocket motors.

Leidos collaborates closely with intelligence agencies on cybersecurity and mission-critical software. General Dynamics builds the M1 Abrams tank and nuclear submarines. Boeing’s space and defense divisions concentrate on fighter aircraft, helicopters, and satellite systems.

Besides the Big Eight, other prominent contractors include SAIC, Booz Allen, Textron, SpaceX, Palantir, Anduril, and General Atomics. As the Pentagon replenishes stocks and pushes new technology projects, contracts will extend to both these established and emerging firms.

The Next Defense Boom Starts Here

The concerning depletion of U.S. weapons inventories, alongside the outdated nature of several frontline systems, reveals a national failure.

While Patriot air-defense systems effectively intercept cruise and ballistic missiles, the growing threat from sophisticated hypersonic weapons introduces fresh challenges. Russia’s persistent targeting of Patriot systems in Ukraine highlights the vulnerability of these costly defense assets amid modern missile warfare.

Yet, from setbacks come fresh opportunities.

The Pentagon is committed not only to replenishing depleted stocks but also to developing advanced systems tailored for the era of AI, drone swarms, and hypersonic threats. Investors considering reducing exposure to the AI boom might find the defense sector poised as the next major growth area.