The Great Silver Debate

Last week, Sean Ring referred to silver as a “busted flush” on the Paradigm app’s Daily Feed:

Silver is a busted flush. Now comfortably trading under $60, silver waits for today’s inflation data. It’s expected to be higher than August’s numbers.

The market seems to be trading off the Fed’s expected response, which, if anything, is to increase rates to fight inflation. That’s putting pressure on silver and gold, but silver is suffering more.

If trading continues today the way it started, we will have a new daily downside target of $47. That matches is a long-term monthly downside target as well. Of course, that doesn’t mean silver will hit the target. But that’s the point it will move toward.

For those unfamiliar with poker, a busted flush is far from ideal.

Several readers have reached out asking for my opinion on Sean’s analysis. Here’s my perspective.

Sean has accurately anticipated recent trends. He sold his silver mining stocks around February 9th, when silver was at $83 per ounce. Currently, it trades near $58.

He exited, while I have maintained my position.

Throughout 2025, Sean and I shared a bullish outlook on silver and related miners.

However, our investment horizons differ. I intend to hold onto my silver for at least a decade, anticipating a turbulent and inflation-heavy environment. My strategy minimizes the need to time the market precisely.

Moreover, much of my metals exposure is in taxable accounts or stored physically. Selling often triggers significant taxes—around 40% on short-term gains and 20% on long-term gains (holding over one year)—plus fees and commissions on physical silver.

Managing tax efficiency is essential. Of course, if your assets are within retirement accounts, that’s advantageous. But many investors don’t have that setup.

Regarding miners, some of my holdings have tripled in value since I purchased them in spring 2025. Although I have taken profits on about 25% of these shares, the bulk remains. My goal is to retain these junior miners until they mature into senior companies or are bought out.

Even with recent declines in silver and current oil prices, miners continue to generate strong cash flow.

Each investor’s circumstances differ. My approach is long-term ownership. Sean’s skill in trading is impressive, and his system suits him well; he relies heavily on technical analysis, which differs from my style.

The main takeaway: there’s no single winning strategy.

Trading vs. Investing

I’ve been upfront about my plan: hold silver and other precious metals for roughly the next ten years. I believe that owning physical assets and PMs is critical for preserving wealth in the years ahead.

Loyal readers will recall we published over a dozen articles advocating silver as a strong buy when it was trading in the $30 range.

Back in January, when silver was approaching the $90s, I wrote in Silver FAQs this cautionary note:

Is it Too Late to Buy?

This is the toughest question.

Let’s take a look at the 1-year silver chart.

What a doozy… Textbook parabolic move.

So lately, when people ask if it’s too late to buy, my answer is probably (for the short-term). I realize that’s not satisfying, but it’s what I see.

Over the long term, you guys know there’s no bigger silver bull than me. Silver is a unique metal, in that it is both industrial and monetary. And demand on both sides is absolutely booming.

But this move just seems like too much, too fast.

So it would be reckless to recommend readers/friends buy here. I suspect we’ll get a better chance to buy silver sometime in the next 5 months.

Silver briefly reached $121 an ounce on January 29th.

Longer-Term: We’re Both Bullish

It is worth noting that Sean remains positive on silver’s long-term prospects. He’s simply waiting for miners to dip before buying back in.

Here’s another message Sean shared on our app’s Daily Feed on October 2nd:

As I wrote yesterday‘s Rude, my price target for silver is somewhere around $56. After a brief rally today, we’ve crashed back down because the markets don’t think Warsh is going to back down.

I think he’s going to wind up hiking in either October or December and the market somewhere is going to break… as a result, the FOMC will start ferociously cutting in 2027.

We are getting very close to wanting to buy back into the silver miners. Again.

So from a long-term view, Sean isn’t pessimistic about silver or its miners. He’s reacting to chart movements, a method that has served him well.

Personally, I adopt a longer-term stance. Both tactics are valid; it depends on your investment style. Are you more comfortable trading or holding over the long haul? Are your investments in taxable accounts or tax-advantaged retirement plans like 401(k)s and IRAs?

Inflation Insurance

Jim Rickards projects silver to reach $200 an ounce, possibly as soon as next year. I agree, though I’m indifferent if that milestone arrives by 2028 or later.

Silver makes up a significant part of my inflation hedge. I foresee inflation remaining a challenge for years, fueling demand from investors—demand that was muted for much of the previous decade.

Industrial consumption is another crucial factor for silver. It’s widely used in solar panels, electronics, defense systems, and medical devices. Solar energy, especially, is a growing sector.

The ongoing energy crisis is prompting nations to install vast solar panel arrays, each containing between 4 and 20 grams of silver.

Consider the scale of China’s largest solar project:

Source: Architecture and Design

Constructing such projects demands enormous quantities of silver. And the demand for solar shows no sign of declining.

Intermission

In conclusion, the excitement surrounding silver isn’t over yet. This phase is merely a pause. No investment appreciates in a straight line, nor should it expect to.

That said, trading silver is certainly an option. Personally, I prefer to maintain holdings in assets I trust for several years. This approach suits me best.

If actively timing the market fits your style, that’s excellent. Just be mindful of tax consequences and ensure you possess the expertise to navigate buying and selling—or have knowledgeable guidance, such as from the experts here at Paradigm.

If you’ve been holding off on purchasing silver, now represents a reasonable entry point. Prices may slide a bit further in the short term, but my confidence for the 2 to 5 year outlook remains very strong.

Silver will revisit $100, then rise to $200, $300, and beyond. I plan to stay invested through the journey.