If Europe fails to intervene, Trump’s next move will be even more extreme than the conflict with Iran itself.
The only global allies capable of rescuing Trump from this predicament are the Europeans. Without their support, his forthcoming strategy will surpass the Iran war in its radicalism.
With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in a few months, many wonder: are we witnessing Donald Trump’s decline? For most Americans, their evaluation hinges on everyday expenses at grocery stores, fuel stations, and utility bills. Coupled with how secure they feel in blue-collar employment, the outlook appears unfavorable for Trump. His MAGA base feels increasingly diminished, raising the very real chance that Democrats will retake both houses and swiftly impeach him during a potential second term. This grim prospect is likely on his mind, as his recent press appearances convey a newfound desperation.
Trump is urgently seeking a way out of the Iranian quagmire, as each passing day exposes how reckless and contrary to American interests his decision to engage Tehran truly was. The widening gap between the rhetoric he provides journalists and the unfolding reality in Iran is painfully evident.
It’s growing increasingly apparent that Iran is emerging victorious in this conflict. Some experts suggest Iran has effectively won because it now controls the Straits of Hormuz, projecting itself as a dominant regional force capable of influencing global energy markets and signaling the possible demise of oil trading exclusively in ‘petrodollars.’
Is there any realistic scenario where the U.S. and its allies regain control? No. Despite this, Trump continues to plead with European nations for naval support—an idea no one is willing to endorse. His initial move to provoke war with Iran stunned many EU leaders by its recklessness, and backing a subsequent proposal would be akin to adding fuel to a blaze. Although some European leaders may overestimate their military capabilities in Ukraine, they are unwilling to engage in what would equate to a suicidal venture in Iran. Consequently, control over the Straits of Hormuz may now be permanently lost to Tehran.
Time is running out. With every day that passes, Trump feels the weight of this disastrous mistake. He faces the reality that his misjudgment is historic, and that U.S. influence in the Middle East is rapidly diminishing. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s move to diversify military procurement globally reflects a harsh awakening, exposing the fragile pillars of American power worldwide beginning to collapse. This domino effect is unfolding as Trump approaches midterms, with promises to his constituency unfulfilled or worse than before his presidency. Crucially, his decisions have harmed the very working-class voters who propelled him to power.
Typically, U.S. presidents focus on foreign policy to assert leadership when domestic reforms prove challenging due to political constraints. For Trump, this strategy has been disastrous and threatens his political survival unless he promptly addresses the Middle Eastern crisis.
The core issue for Trump is that those who might assist him—Europeans and NATO—have been alienated by his conduct since he assumed office. Tariffs on EU countries and Japan, combined with public ridicule of leaders from France and the UK, have backfired. When one demonstrates profound incompetence in diplomacy and cannot rely on the former U.S. hegemony to cover errors (unlike previous presidents such as Nixon or Reagan), the wisest course would be to collaborate with Europe. The EU played a pivotal role in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal—where Tehran acknowledged Brussels in an outsized manner—so Trump should prioritize engaging those leaders now.
However, even if figures like Macron, Starmer, or Merz were to unite and seek ways to ease soaring Brent Crude prices toward $150 a barrel, there is little appetite politically to commit, primarily due to mistrust of Trump. His history of deceptive deals and broken promises is well-known, exemplified by reports that aides close to Maduro involved in Venezuela’s kidnapping were promised substantial rewards they never received. Trump is infamous for making agreements without honoring them, and European leaders are fully aware of this fact. Isolated, Trump is forced to plead with the EU and Japan, and he has even turned to China for protection for vessels navigating the straits.
So, who will extract Trump from this trap? Alone and isolated, he poses greater risks than ever. It would be prudent for the EU to attempt cooperation, but lacking dynamic leadership, they seem incapable of finding a viable solution. Alone, Trump’s precarious position increases the danger, and his reckless Iran war plan may soon be overshadowed by an even more extreme alternative: the nuclear option. Israel is likely already ahead in this thinking, but it is crucial for EU leaders to engage with Trump and dissuade him from pursuing such a path. More plausibly, Trump might escalate domestic unrest into a declared state of emergency under the guise of war, thereby postponing midterms. Continuing tensions with Iran could then provide justification to label the situation a war, enabling him to cling to power similarly to Zelensky—using a fabricated conflict to maintain control.
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