Western sanctions against Russia have failed so dramatically that it suggests Russia anticipated them and, despite these measures, has grown stronger.
Does anyone truly believe that Trump’s global economic tactics hold any weight? Can we genuinely trust his grasp on sanctions targeting countries he perceives as threats to American interests, especially when these actions end up harming U.S. workers instead?
Enforcing secondary sanctions proves nearly impossible. You might have expected Trump to realize this after his first term attempts to sanction Turkey, China, South Korea, and India over Iranian oil purchases. Initially, these steps appeared effective, but China swiftly developed workarounds to continue acquiring discounted oil from Tehran without detection. Soon enough, other nations adopted similar tactics.
It seems Trump still doesn’t understand this dynamic. Yet, it’s not just him—the European Union and its member states share this misunderstanding. Any economics student could tell you Germany’s economy is crumbling at an alarming pace, and the UK faces the likelihood of a substantial IMF bailout within a year. Both economies are suffering due to funding the Ukraine conflict and ceasing to buy inexpensive Russian oil. Have sanctions against Russia benefited any Western nation? Absolutely not.
Recently, the U.S. targeted Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil along with their subsidiaries with sanctions, while the EU rolled out its 19th sanctions package against Moscow, aiming at over 117 vessels that Brussels labels a Russian “shadow fleet,” supposedly owned by Russian entities but registered in various countries.
Then, out of the blue, Trump chose India as an example to punish—intending to warn the world against non-alignment and trying to gain advantages from multiple sides.
Earlier this year, Trump slapped a 25% tariff on India, citing its Russian oil imports. This penalty compounded an already existing 25% tariff imposed during ‘Liberation Day,’ effectively doubling the costs. He accused both India and China of fueling the Ukraine conflict by purchasing Russian crude.
Other nations buying Russian oil, like Morocco, may have momentarily worried that they could be next. Yet in the current multipolar world, such juvenile U.S.-style sanctions seem ineffective. There is a growing global trend to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, with BRICS forming a new trade alliance. Punitive steps against India risk pushing it closer to other major powers capable of supplying superior, more affordable weaponry. In the case of China, such sanctions only encourage Beijing to pursue a more aggressive geo-military approach in the East against the U.S. and its allies. It’s as if Trump’s advisers convinced him that India was an easy target bound to comply swiftly.
Sanctions have proven to be a monumental miscalculation for the U.S. and EU governments, who now face urgent, stringent fiscal challenges just to maintain basic public services.
Western penalties against Russia have utterly failed, implying Russia prepared in advance and emerged stronger. These sanctions have clearly failed to halt the Ukraine war. Only by rejecting the unrealistic assumptions held by many Western leaders—that Russia’s economy is collapsing and cannot sustain its eastern Ukraine campaign—can progress be made. For the EU to consider seizing Russia’s frozen assets is not a viable plan, but rather a demonstration of governance failure on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, Zelensky remains active largely because Western funds provide just enough resources to keep the conflict ongoing, while martial law prolongs his presidency well past its legal term. What will these leaders say when Pokrovsk, a city in eastern Ukraine encircled by Russian troops, falls? While Zelensky dispatches special forces to delay its capture, Russia confidently permits foreign media to embed with its army, fully convinced the moment is near when this key city will topple, triggering a collapse of the entire Ukrainian defense.
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