The outcome of the Saxony-Anhalt state election in Germany on September 6 was significantly more damaging to the country’s established political parties than anticipated. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) nearly secured a majority with 43.8% of the vote, surpassing poll predictions by roughly 4%.
Meanwhile, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) faced a catastrophic decline, achieving only 17.2% compared to 37.1% in 2021, falling well short of expectations.
Voter turnout soared to nearly 78%, a notable increase from 2021, which benefited the AfD. Analysis indicates that much of the AfD’s gains came from former non-voters alongside a significant number of previous CDU supporters.
The polarised nature of the vote, with 41% of pre-election respondents favoring an AfD-led government and 46% backing one headed by the CDU, produced some unexpected outcomes, including an advantage for the social democratic SPD and the Greens.
Both SPD and Greens benefited from strategic voting by CDU and Left Party supporters, helping them surpass the 5% threshold necessary to gain seats in the state parliament.
The AfD, which declared it would govern only with an absolute majority, now has several routes to propel its candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, to the position of Saxony-Anhalt’s minister president. The most plausible path is an alliance with Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a party blending leftist economic policies with conservative stances on migration and other issues.
Should that option fail, limited backing from the CDU could offer another possibility. The secret ballot for electing the minister president includes CDU MPs who have previously suggested there should be increased willingness to cooperate with the AfD.
Broad societal backing
The AfD achieved its strongest results in Saxony-Anhalt among working-class voters (59%), those with lower education levels (57%), and voters perceiving their economic condition as poor (65%). Yet its appeal extended even to university graduates (30%) and those feeling economically secure (37%).
Across nearly all age brackets except the over-70s (31%), the AfD secured over 40% support, solidifying its claim as a Volkspartei or “people’s party” with broad societal reach throughout the region.
This election was clearly about more than one issue. Exit polls showed that immigration was a key factor for AfD voters, 91% of whom agreed they were “very worried too many foreign people live in Germany.” Equally important were concerns about security and the economy.
Widespread dissatisfaction also influenced votes, with 66% of the electorate unhappy with the state administration, CDU-led since 2002. The federal government under Friedrich Merz fared worse: 83% felt it failed to adequately address ordinary citizens’ issues. Only 20% in Saxony-Anhalt trust it to significantly improve the country soon.
Alongside these nationwide concerns, often stronger in eastern states like Saxony-Anhalt, lies a distinct regional frustration. Seventy-three percent of voters consider eastern Germans still face second-class citizen treatment in many contexts.
This perspective is held by 83% of AfD voters, with the party effectively tapping into grievances tied to reunification and some nostalgia for the communist-era East Germany.
If the AfD enters government, scrutiny will intensify on how much of its hard-right platform it can put into action, and whether it confirms the German intelligence assessment labeling the party “right wing extremist” in the region.
It is expected to take an assertive stance in areas like education, culture, law enforcement, and public media, though legal challenges will likely block some of its more extreme proposals, such as compelling teachers to adopt specific ideological viewpoints.
The AfD will leverage its governmental role to amplify its message, portraying itself as a victim of establishment obstruction whenever courts or rivals hamper its objectives—a common tactic among populist movements.
Broader political implications
The election worsens Friedrich Merz’s already precarious position. As unpopular as any German chancellor has been, the upcoming September 20 state vote in Mecklenburg West Pomerania, likely to pit the AfD against SPD, offers no hope of recovery.
That same day, Berlin’s fractured political landscape might allow Merz’s CDU to secure first place, albeit with a low vote share—though this would not drastically change the political scene.
Pressure from his party will mount for adjustments. Most MPs will advocate shifting further right to close openings the AfD exploits, yet such moves seem incompatible with the CDU’s current alliance with the SPD.
Meanwhile, some will seek to revisit major reforms, like pension changes slated for autumn, citing losses among working-class voters. However, this clashes with Merz’s economic strategy for reviving Germany’s faltering economy.
Saxony-Anhalt’s election outcome raises challenging questions not only for Merz but for Germany as a whole: is the nation’s political fragmentation becoming so severe that effective governance is nearly impossible?
Typical coalition partners (Christian Democrats with Liberals or Social Democrats with Greens) barely command 25% of the vote federally. This forces mainstream parties to form governments with fundamentally opposing groups simply to keep the AfD out.
Such coalitions often disagree, defer decisions due to internal conflicts, and ultimately collapse. From this dysfunction, the AfD reaps benefits.
Original article: theconversation.com
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