The European Union (EU) remains a passive observer in the conflict involving Iran, yet it faces the danger of suffering considerable indirect consequences. While public opinion throughout Europe largely opposes a war that bypasses established international law, the continent continues to depend heavily on the United States for both energy supplies and security assurances. Taking a firm anti-war position risks estranging President Donald Trump, potentially leaving Europe vulnerable on the strategic front. Truly, this places the EU in a precarious and challenging position.
Navigating such a geopolitical dilemma is undoubtedly painful. However, even with tempered expectations, Brussels’ reaction has been disappointing. Its leadership seems increasingly willing to abandon core elements of the EU’s foundational identity. Kaja Kallas, the EU spokesperson on foreign affairs, has limited her statements to censuring Iran, without raising concerns about the legality of the US-Israeli military actions.
Perhaps the most surprising remarks have come from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Recently, she implied that the international rules-based system might actually obstruct the EU’s geopolitical goals. This is striking, considering that only three years ago, von der Leyen cited international law to denounce Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine. Now, she questions those same principles as outdated because they conflict with the EU’s short-term interests. The contradiction is stark.
EU decision-makers appear to have overlooked Winston Churchill’s insightful observation that strength often stems from mindset. Defeatism tends to create its own reality. By discouraging public anti-war sentiment and disconnecting from civil society, the Brussels elite risks deepening societal divisions. This only exacerbates a persistent feeling of democratic failure, which in recent years has been skillfully exploited by anti-EU groups within national political arenas.
As the war’s repercussions become clearer—manifesting in escalating energy costs, inflation, and large-scale migration—social unrest will continue to intensify Eurosceptic sentiments. When those in charge hint that the vessel is sinking, passengers naturally seek the lifeboats.
Should the EU accept the collapse of the rules-based order, it would lose its capacity to resist outside pressure, whether from Russian expansion or from Trump’s ambitions regarding Greenland. Such surrender puts at risk the future of the single market, which rests on multilateral principles now facing serious challenges.
Original article: South China Morning Post
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