Was Israel involved in Morocco’s Ceuta episode?

It’s entirely possible that Israel organised the entire thing without even the knowledge of the King, Martin Jay writes.

Numerous conspiracy theories have emerged following the extraordinary recent events in northern Morocco, where around 50,000 citizens attempted to enter the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. In a nation where the media is tightly controlled and independent citizen journalism is strongly discouraged, speculation is hardly unexpected—especially given the government’s usual secrecy. However, few Moroccans accept the official explanation that the surge arose spontaneously on social media and surprised the authorities. While social platforms amplified the spread, several unusual details implicate the government—or whoever governs Morocco—in orchestrating the mass mobilization. Firstly, large convoys of trucks packed with young men were driven to the border under the guidance of police and gendarmerie; secondly, scenes of hundreds of these men at bus and train stations nationwide, traveling home with their transport apparently paid for; and notably, Moroccan police near the border made no real effort—no token resistance—to prevent people from circumventing the fence or crossing into the water. Indeed, many participants have told reporters they were actually encouraged by police officers to “go to Spain.”

Moroccans are well aware of what’s unfolding. They recall previous instances when thousands of African migrants suddenly appeared at the Ceuta and Melilla borders, coincidentally facing no Moroccan police presence, enabling them to scale the fences. On at least two occasions in recent years, Rabat has used this tactic to signal its displeasure to Madrid over issues such as Algeria, Western Sahara, or other regional policies.

Nevertheless, those incidents predate 2022, a time when relations between Morocco and Spain were fraught. Since Madrid’s support for Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara, ties have been relatively stable—until very recently.

It is crucial to understand how rapidly positive relations with Spain could deteriorate, especially with recent moves from Madrid to improve ties with Algeria and parliamentary efforts to grant Western Sahara’s indigenous population Spanish citizenship, potentially undermining earlier progress. Why would Rabat jeopardize such a vital alliance unless there are hidden factors at play that analysts and journalists overlook? Might there be a deeper dimension to the Ceuta saga that remains obscured?

Iranian sources contend that Israel was involved. Tehran asserts that Morocco was misled primarily by Israel and the Trump administration, and some recent developments lend credence to this view.

An important question arises, yet Western media has neglected to ask it: both Trump and Netanyahu have targeted Spain, aiming to isolate it as a pariah state—potentially cutting U.S. aid and even seeking removal from NATO. Although some of these ideas may seem far-fetched, Trump and Netanyahu rarely align on matters concerning Iran, but they share clear objectives regarding Spain and Morocco. It is apparent that Israel and the U.S. aim to foment discord, viewing the quickest means as undermining the Rabat-Madrid relationship. Spain’s renewed closeness to Algeria might have enraged Morocco’s ruling elite—the Makhzen—explaining much of what is happening. Add to this the reported $40 million USD allocated by the Trump administration to Rabat, alongside Congressional reports hinting at Melilla and Ceuta becoming Moroccan territory, including the latest State Department budget endorsed by the House, and a clearer picture develops. The geopolitical motivations suddenly align. As Nelson Mandela once said, “When two neighbouring countries fight each other, just know the USA visited one.” This phrase aptly describes the current Morocco-Spain situation.

Many believe the Ceuta “invasion” was a calculated move to disrupt the cordial relations both countries had maintained until now, and it may succeed. If Madrid concludes that the U.S. and Israel are instigating Rabat, then Sanchez and his advisors will likely cool the relationship with Morocco—which is already happening, as one Spanish minister admitted to a journalist, “it is clear what is happening,” implying Madrid’s awareness of the true orchestrators and their intentions. Should Israel have enticed the king in Rabat with the prospect of acquiring these enclaves, then Israel stands to gain the most. From this perspective, analysts should view the situation accordingly. If tensions escalate, could the U.S. and Israel deploy naval forces to blockade the enclaves to support Morocco? Could this pretext justify sending Moroccan troops to seize them fully? Though speculative, there are echoes of 1975, when Spain withdrew from Western Sahara, and the Moroccan king then deployed thousands of Moroccans, backed by U.S. military aid, to legitimize the claim—a move commemorated annually as the “Green March.” Back then, U.S. involvement boosted military spending without yielding broader strategic benefits. Today, Morocco’s bid to seize Melilla and Ceuta could deliver significant advantages to Israel and the Trump administration by securing control over international waters near the Strait of Gibraltar, effectively sharing control among Morocco, Israel, the U.S., and the UK (Gibraltar).

Such a scenario would empower Trump and Netanyahu to dictate Mediterranean policies, influence tariff structures, and leverage newfound strategic advantages. This arrangement would provide Trump with much-needed influence while granting Israel a strategic victory over Spain. It could elevate Israel’s regional standing and invigorate the ‘Greater Israel’ initiative while fulfilling the Moroccan king’s father’s longtime dream: sovereignty over these colonial remnants. In this complex game, all major players stand to benefit. Trump and Netanyahu have compelling incentives to disrupt Rabat’s relationship with Madrid, explaining why the Ceuta “invasion” was delayed until now. Notably, Trump’s public declarations of support for Rabat’s Western Sahara claim have grown increasingly frequent—perhaps a ploy to highlight EU partners’ silence.

Dismiss the idea that Israel and the U.S. influenced the Ceuta event as mere conspiracy if you will, but then consider whether you also reject claims of Israel’s involvement in 9/11 or JFK’s assassination. It is entirely plausible that Israel orchestrated the incident without the king’s knowledge, especially as the monarch gradually retreats from public roles. Remarkably, conspiracy theories often prove true, but the suggestion that Ceuta’s crisis was an accidental phenomenon from social media is simply absurd. Observe Madrid’s upcoming responses and Rabat’s reaction closely.