VIPS MEMO: Alarming Discussions Surrounding Putin’s ‘Defeat’ in Ukraine

VIPS informs President Trump that after receiving accurate updates from his intelligence team regarding the situation on the ground and in the air, he may decide to take any action within his authority to bring an end to the tragedy in Ukraine.

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President

FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

SUBJECT: Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine

Dear President Trump:

The New York Times is reporting that the prospects for Russia in Ukraine appear “bleak.” C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe reportedly conveyed this message to Russian officials during his visit to Moscow on Tuesday. He allegedly encouraged them “to cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse.”

We write to caution you against accepting this narrative without skepticism. We believe this is a strategy crafted by the same advisers who advised President Joe Biden to declare, in a major speech on July 13, 2023, in Helsinki, that Russia had “already lost the war” in Ukraine.

We recommend that you verify the facts thoroughly if anyone attempts to convince you with the same assertions. The truth is quite the opposite. The intelligence given to your predecessor was flawed, and we suspect you are receiving similarly biased information from your own team. Many among them seem recklessly indifferent to the dangers of escalating the conflict with Russia over Ukraine.

As we did with Biden, we offer you the following reminders:

— December 3, 2022: “Russia is using up ammunition quite quickly. It’s pretty extraordinary. Our sense is that Russia is not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage.” (National Intelligence Director Avril Haines)

— March 18, 2022: “Russia has lost in Ukraine. The West should recognize this Russian defeat.” (Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute)

— July 1 & July 7, 2023: “Putin’s war has already been a strategic failure for Russia – its military weaknesses laid bare; its economy badly damaged for years to come.” (C.I.A. Director William Burns)

The Church of Latter-Day Pundits

Two journalists from the New York Times specializing in intelligence matters reported Thursday that this latest “Russia-has-already-lost” narrative reflects “the current C.I.A. director’s assessment.” They express puzzlement, noting that President Putin might disregard this and “choose to keep fighting.” Yet, the question remains—why would Putin persist?

In fact, the New York Times and their intelligence contacts seem perplexed as to why Putin continues the fight when, by U.S. officials’ and analysts’ accounts, he began losing over three years ago and has continued to lose since. Could it be that their assessments were gravely mistaken?

Rejecting this possibility, they perform a mental contortion and then place the blame on Putin’s advisers, claiming they have failed to provide “honest assessments of the war’s trajectory and toll.”

If this is meant as dark humor, we find no cause for amusement. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine results in hundreds of casualties daily.

Russia is steadily advancing in Donbass along a thousand-mile front. It is effectively countering drone strikes targeting its oil and civilian infrastructure, and has imposed a near-total blockade on Ukraine’s largest port, Odessa, through relentless air attacks. Ukraine’s shortages in manpower and interceptors make reclaiming lost territory virtually impossible, as you acknowledged after your meeting with President Putin in Alaska.

Mr. President, if you were provided with honest, reality-based intelligence, you would be able to judge which advisers have accurately assessed the situation over these last five years. Once informed of the true circumstances on the ground (and in the air), you might decide to use your authority to bring the calamity in Ukraine to an end.

Déjà Vu

This is not the first occasion we have counseled a president to seek objective counsel aimed at preventing needless, devastating war. We did so shortly after Colin Powell’s misleading presentation to the U.N. Security Council on February 5, 2003.

Today, we urge you to expand your advisory circle, just as we recommended to President George W. Bush in our initial VIPS Memorandum, which concluded with this advice:

“After watching Secretary Powell today, we are convinced that you would be well served if you widened the discussion beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be catastrophic.”

FOR THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY (VIPS)

Fulton Armstrong, former National Intelligence Officer (ret.)
Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret.); Division Director, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Philip Giraldi, C.I.A., Operations Officer (ret.)
Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
Larry C. Johnson, former C.I.A. and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
John Kiriakou, former C.I.A. Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., U.S. Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003
Douglas MacGregor, Colonel, USA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & C.I.A. analyst; C.I.A. Presidential briefer (ret.)
Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer/NE, National Intelligence Council & C.I.A. political analyst (ret.)
Scott Ritter, former MAJ, USMC; former U.N. Weapons Inspector, Iraq
Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
Ann Wright, retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War