By refusing to advocate for negotiations, the West has done Ukraine a disservice.
On June 25, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initiated a “40-day influence operation” aimed at striking deep targets within Russia using drones. Zelensky stated the objective was to force Russia “to end the war” and to restart talks under conditions advantageous to Ukraine.
This effort appears to have fallen short. During this timeframe, Russia capitalized on three critical vulnerabilities in Ukraine to improve its strategic standing.
Firstly, a severe shortage of troops has left gaps in the defensive perimeter protecting key cities in Ukraine’s so-called “fortress belt.” Throughout the summer, Russian forces have methodically pushed forward, possibly capturing the important city of Konstantinovka. Should it have fallen, it is likely that other cities in this belt will face similar fates.
The third challenge is Ukraine’s difficulty in downing Russian drones, as well as missiles. Russia’s latest jet-powered Geren drone variant outpaces Ukraine’s interceptor drones by a considerable margin. These hybrids of drones and cruise missiles have severely impacted Odessa’s port operations, disrupting weapon deliveries into Ukraine and hindering exports of agricultural and mining goods.
With setbacks in air, land, and economic warfare, it increasingly appears Ukraine may be the first to concede and return to negotiations. Tragically, the terms that will be offered now will likely be far less favorable than those Ukraine could have secured earlier in the conflict. In spring 2022, Ukraine was poised to negotiate peace on advantageous terms (negotiators themselves drafted the proposals). However, pressure from the U.S. and the UK diverted Ukraine away from diplomacy and into deeper warfare.
Oleksiy Arestovych, formerly part of Ukraine’s negotiating team in Istanbul, stated in 2024 that the Istanbul agreement was “90 percent prepared.” Davyd Arakhamia, head of the Ukrainian delegation, gave a similar assessment, confirming Russia’s readiness “to end the war if we… committed that we would not join NATO.” According to Arakhamia, the negotiations scored “8 points out of 10” in terms of success. Another negotiator, Oleksandr Chalyi, recalled the peace settlement was close in April, with both sides near a resolution. “It was,” Arestovych concluded, “the most profitable agreement we could have done.”
What follows is an extensive collection of primary and significant secondary testimonies indicating that the U.S. and UK discouraged Ukraine from finalizing this pact.
While secondary sources depend on indirect information, some are noteworthy due to their former roles. Iuliia Mendel, Zelensky’s former press secretary, claimed that Boris Johnson “influenced the decision” to halt negotiations. Victoria Nuland, ex-undersecretary of state for political affairs and a key figure during the 2014 Euromaidan, stated the Istanbul talks collapsed because “people outside Ukraine” challenged the agreement. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico observed that at the war’s start in 2022, the West prevented Ukraine from securing a ceasefire on fair terms twice. Then-Senator J.D. Vance told the Senate that a peace deal was indeed presented but was dismissed after the Biden administration urged Zelensky to abandon it.
Ukrainska Pravda initially reported Boris Johnson’s hurried visit to Kiev, where he advised Zelensky that Putin should be pressured rather than negotiated with and that even if Ukraine was ready to sign agreements with Russia, the West was not. In The Russo-Ukrainian War: Follies of Empire, Richard Sakwa cites a prior call in which Johnson told Zelensky the UK “would not stand as a guarantor power and urged Zelensky to refuse the deal.” Sakwa adds this was the stance Western leaders collectively took on March 29, the day the Istanbul talks occurred. A senior government official told The Times that the UK warned Zelensky against making premature concessions, insisting Ukraine should maintain a strong military position before negotiations.
Even more significant are testimonies from nine primary participants, including Ukrainian negotiators and mediators.
Arakhamia confirmed that after returning from Istanbul, Boris Johnson visited Kiev and insisted no agreement should be signed, urging them to continue fighting. He added the West advised against committing to unreliable security guarantees.
Arestovych asserted the talks were terminated because the West decided to use Ukraine as a pawn in their conflict with Russia.
Chalyi made clear that security guarantees for Ukraine would only come if the Istanbul negotiations were abandoned. “In mid-April 2022, leaders from the U.S. and UK declared their refusal to participate in a multilateral Treaty on Security Guarantees for Ukraine that included Russia, but assured they were prepared to offer independent or multi-lateral guarantees excluding Russia.”
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was invited by Zelensky to mediate. He said “there was a good chance of reaching a ceasefire,” but the West “blocked it.” According to Bennett, “a ceasefire was near, with both sides ready to make significant compromises. However, the UK and U.S. chose to end the process and continued the war.” (Though Bennett later softened these claims, stating in 2023 he was “unsure a deal was possible.”)
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder was also invited to mediate by Zelensky. He commented that Ukraine did not agree to peace because they were not permitted; they first needed U.S. approval on all discussions. “Everything else was decided in Washington. That was fatal.”
Jean-Daniel Ruch, Swiss ambassador to Turkey during the talks, consulted on Ukraine’s neutrality proposal and also stated, “the West cut off negotiations that nearly led to a ceasefire. We were close, but the Americans and their British allies said no.”
Turkish officials hosting the talks corroborate that Western powers discouraged the peace process. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said the talks had potential to end the conflict, but “there are NATO members who want the war prolonged so Russia weakens.” Turkey’s ruling party deputy chairman Numan Kurtulmuş reported that “The United States benefits from prolonging the war… Putin and Zelensky were close to signing, but someone prevented it.”
Most tellingly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, referencing Putin’s remarks on Arakhamia’s account, said, “Mr. Putin’s statements show sincerity. We took all sincere steps in what we call the Istanbul process… until former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson withdrew support from the peace efforts.”
With Russia continuing to gain ground, it seems inevitable that Ukraine will ultimately return to negotiation. The deal it receives now is expected to be less favorable than the one pushed aside four years ago. Since then, hundreds of thousands have died or been injured, millions displaced, and Ukraine’s economy, environment, and infrastructure devastated, with territory lost. It is time to acknowledge and apologize to Ukrainians for diverting them from the negotiation path in the war’s early stages.
Original article: www.theamericanconservative.com
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