What we are witnessing is Trump at his lowest point, writes Martin Jay.
Congress needs to work together to get Trump impeached before it’s too late – as there won’t be any credibility around the world soon for the U.S., just unpaid checks.
For Donald Trump, August 28th will likely pass unremarked. It is doubtful that anyone close to him will remind him it marks six months since he announced plans to initiate an “incursion” into Iran, expecting it to last only a “few days.” Half a year on, leading analysts in Washington are openly stating on podcasts that it has become widely accepted that Trump retreated and abandoned any intentions of escalating a conflict with Iran, especially involving ground forces. His campaign faltered due to a shortage of three essential things. First, the necessary stockpile of missiles: early impulsive strikes rapidly depleted key missile types, severely limiting America’s ability to exert pressure globally as a self-styled superpower. Second, feasible military alternatives: relying solely on missile strikes, primarily airborne, proved grossly insufficient to significantly damage Iran’s infrastructure to compel negotiations. Third, trustworthiness: this was vital for any potential diplomatic exit ramp, which the Iranians rejected outright, having long since lost faith in Trump’s promise-keeping.
The issue of credibility also extends to key allies, and perhaps this was the nail in the coffin for Trump’s strategy. Ultimately, he found no solid support among usual backers—the EU leaders—many of whom are preoccupied with their own crises. With Britain, France, and Germany drifting alarmingly toward far-right political shifts in the coming years, these partners were hardly in a position to offer him genuine backing.
On this half-year milestone, what lessons present themselves for Americans? The uncertainty that once worked in America’s favor regarding the strength of their arsenal compared to Iran’s has vanished. This edge is effectively lost. Neither side seems quite ready to accept the reality, but the substantial missile barrage launched at Iran failed to cripple Tehran’s missile manufacturing. Iran’s long-standing strategy—producing missiles of various quality and using its older stock to bait American and Israeli interceptors—was ingenious. Essentially, many Iranian missiles served mainly as decoys to exhaust superior interceptors. This tactic remains relevant as the U.S. expends costly $4 million missiles to neutralize drones worth a mere $15,000, highlighting that advanced yet affordable technology delivered the decisive blow to the U.S.
Though struggling, Trump remains undefeated in his own mind. Like a boxer past his prime, he believes he still has tricks left, yet he cannot grasp how his maneuvers with allies and rivals only further erode his credibility. This decline hampers America’s ability to secure more international loans. Reports claiming the U.S. debt has hit $40 trillion are misleading; economists argue this figure significantly underestimates the full burden, which likely exceeds $100 trillion and could approach $250 trillion when fully accounted for.
Regardless, what unfolds before us is Trump at his nadir—more akin to a disoriented fighter who should have stayed out of the ring altogether. His time in office has been so humiliating that it resorts to intimidating Japan into leaving the ICC, responding to relentless pressure from Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid facing an international arrest warrant. These are acts born of desperation. Perhaps even more telling was dispatching the CIA chief to Moscow to plead for Russia to halt attacks on civilian facilities in Ukraine. According to some experts, Ukraine has nearly lost all air defenses and energy resources and faces a bleak winter, signaling an imminent defeat. While Ukraine occasionally targets Russian assets that impact Russia’s economy, sustaining itself seems increasingly untenable as vital infrastructure in Kyiv suffers destruction. Zelensky’s war effort resembles an obsolete Soviet factory: its worn machinery demands costly fuel and constant repairs just to output a product with no market. Meanwhile, the true purpose is centered on the leader managing cash flow, distributing payoffs to loyalists, and maintaining appearances, all while the workers understand collapse is inevitable. Those close to Zelensky recognize the absence of hope for victory; the current struggle is mainly a ploy to maintain the money-laundering operation a little longer—months, perhaps weeks—before all flee under cover of darkness. How would Trump handle such a catastrophic setback after the Iran situation? His associates at Blackrock and JP Morgan stand to lose heavily on nebulous deals tied to war profits, while Trump himself risks becoming an increasingly irrelevant figure on the global stage—one his core MAGA base may no longer respect, especially as the likelihood of losing both congressional chambers grows daily.
About the Author
